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Read forward curves and term-structure factors
Updated 4 August 2026 · 2 min read · 14 Contents
Plain-language meaning
A forward curve orders compatible contract prices by expiry. Its slope and curvature summarize the observed term structure; they do not predict the next price.
Why it is useful #
Curves expose calendar structure that a single front-month quote hides and make input consistency inspectable.
Where it appears and the workflow #
In Commodity Intelligence, enter a valuation date, positive spot reference, unit and at least two observed dated quotes. Review observed nodes separately from interpolated month ends.
Calculation or source #
Observed quotes are preserved exactly. Month ends use log-linear interpolation. Annualized carry is ln(F/S) divided by year fraction; level, slope and curvature come from a log-price polynomial fit.
Prerequisites, inputs, period and unit #
Every quote must share product specification, currency and unit. Expiries must be unique and after the valuation date. No provider values are inserted.
Worked example #
With spot 100, a three-month quote 102 and six-month quote 105, the curve is upward sloping; interpolation can estimate a display node between them while keeping 102 and 105 unchanged.
What high and low mean #
A higher far price produces positive slope under this convention; stronger curvature means the slope changes across expiries, not that price must accelerate.
Positive, negative and zero #
Contango, backwardation and flat are descriptive signs. Zero slope is a measured flat fit; an absent fit remains unavailable.
Limitations and common mistakes #
Interpolation is not a tradable quote. Contract rolls, seasonality, delivery optionality, liquidity and mismatched specifications can dominate a simple factor summary.
Market-specific differences #
Expiry calendars, settlement and contract specifications vary by venue; curves from different products must not be spliced.
Suggested next steps #
Next, verify contract specifications and compare the calculated carry with a separately entered storage/carry scenario.
Educational use only #
This guide explains descriptive research evidence. It is not investment advice, a price prediction, a recommendation, a claim of predictive accuracy, or an instruction to buy, sell, rebalance or place an order.